Pivot Points

Professional traders and market makers use pivot points to identify important support and resistance levels. Simply put, a pivot point and its support/resistance levels are areas at which the direction of price movement can possibly change.

Pivot points are especially useful to short-term traders who are looking to take advantage of small price movements.

Pivot points can be used by both range-bound traders and breakout traders. Range-bound traders use pivot points to identify reversal points. Breakout traders use pivot points to recognize key levels that need to be broken for a move to be classified as a real deal breakout.

Here is an example of pivot points plotted on a 1-hour EUR/USD chart:

How to Calculate Pivot Points

The pivot point and associated support and resistance levels are calculated by using the last trading session’s open, high, low, and close. Since Forex is a 24-hour market, most traders use the New York closing time of 4:00pm EST as the previous day’s close.

The calculation for a pivot point is shown below:

Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3

Support and resistance levels are then calculated off the pivot point like so:

First level support and resistance:

First support (S1) = (2*PP) – High

First resistance (R1) = (2*PP) – Low

Second level of support and resistance:

Second support (S2) = PP – (High – Low)

Second resistance (R2) = PP + (High - Low)

Don’t worry you don’t have to perform these calculations yourself. Your charting software will automatically do it for you and plot it on the chart.

Also keep in mind that some charting software also provides additional pivot point features such as a third support and resistance level and intermediate levels or mid-point levels (levels in between the main pivot point and support and resistance level).

These “extra levels” aren’t as significant as the main five but it doesn’t hurt to pay attention to them. Here’s an example:

How to Trade with Pivot Points

Breakout Trades

The pivot point should be the first place you look at to enter a trade, since it is the primary support/resistance level. The biggest price movements usually occur at the price of the pivot point.

Only when price reaches the pivot point will you be able to determine whether to go long or short, and set your profit targets and stops. Generally, if prices are above the pivot it’s considered bullish, and if they are below it’s considered bearish.

Let’s say the price is hovering around the pivot point and closes below it so you decide to go short. Your stop loss would be above PP and your initial profit target would be at S1.

However, if you see prices continue to fall below S1, instead of cashing out at S1, you can move your existing stop-loss order just above S1 and watch carefully. Typically, S2 will be the expected lowest point of the trading day and should be your ultimate profit objective.

The converse applies during an uptrend. If price closed above PP, you would enter a long position, set a stop loss below PP and use the R1 and R2 levels as your profit objectives.

Range-bound Trades

The strength of support and resistance at the different pivot levels is determined by the number of times the price bounces off the pivot level.

The more times a currency pair touches a pivot level then reverses, the stronger the level is. Pivoting simply means reaching a support or resistance level and then reversing. Hence, the word “pivot”.

If the pair is nearing an upper resistance level, you could sell the pair and place a tight protective stop just above the resistance level.

If the pair keeps moving higher and breaks out above the resistance level, this would be considered an upside “breakout”. You would also get stopped out of your short order but if you believe that the breakout has good follow-through buying strength, you can reenter with a long position. You would then place your protective stop just below the former resistance level that was just penetrated and is now acting as support.

If the pair is nearing a lower support level, you could buy the pair and place a stop below the support level.

Theoretically Perfect?

In theory, it sounds pretty simple huh? Dream on, pal!

In the real world, pivot points don’t work all the time. Price tends to hesitate around pivot lines and at times it’s just ridiculously hard to tell what it will do next.

Sometimes the price will stop just before reaching a pivot line and then reverse meaning your profit target doesn’t get reached. Other times, it looks like a pivot line is a strong support level so you go long only to see the price fall, stop you out, then reverse back into your direction.

You must be very selective and create a pivot point trading strategy that you intend to strictly follow.

Let’s go look at a chart to see just how difficult and easy pivot points might be.

Ooooh pretty colors! We like...

Look at the orange oval. Notice how the PP was a strong support but if you went long on PP, it never was able to rise up to R1.

Look at the first purple circle. The pair broke down through PP but failed to reach S1 before reversing back to PP. On the second break down though (second purple circle), the pair did manage to reach S1 before once again reversing back to PP.

Look at the pink oval. Again, PP acted as strong support but never was able to rise up to R1.

On the yellow circle, the pair broke out to the downside again, sliced right through S1, and managed to fall all the way down to S2.

If you ever attempted to go long on this chart, you would have been stopped out every single time.

Personally, we would have not even thought about buying this pair - Why not? Well we have a little secret. What we didn’t show you regarding this chart was that this pair was trending down for quite some time now.

Remember the trend is your friend. We don’t like to backstab our friends, so we try our best to never trade against the trend.

In the next lesson, you will learn how to use multiple timeframes to trade with the correct trend direction so you’re able to minimize possible mistakes such as the one above.

Forex Pivot Point Trading Tips

Here are some easy to memorize tips that will help you to make smart pivot point trading decisions.

• If price at PP, watch for a move back to R1 or S1.
• If price is at R1, expect a move to R2 or back towards PP.
• If price is at S1, expect a move to S2 or back towards PP.
• If price is at R2, expect a move to R3 or back towards R1.
• If price is at S2, expect a move to S3 or back towards S1.
• If there is no significant news to influence the market, price will usually move from P to S1 or R1.
• If there is significant news to influence the market price may go straight through R1 or S1 and reach R2 or S2 and even R3 or S3.
• R3 and S3 are a good indication for the maximum range for extremely volatile days but can be exceeded occasionally.
• Pivot lines work well in sideways markets as prices will most likely range between the R1 and S1 lines.
• In a strong trend, price will blow through a pivot line and keep going.

Summary

• Pivot points are a technique used by professional traders and market makers to determine entry and exit points for the trading day based on the previous day’s trading activity. It’s best to use this technique after determining the direction of the trend.

• As the charts above show, pivots can be extremely useful in Forex since many currency pairs usually fluctuate between these levels.

• Range-bound traders will enter a buy order near identified levels of support and a sell order when the pair nears resistance.

• Pivot points also allow breakout traders to identify key levels that need to be broken for a move to qualify as a bona fide breakout.

• The simplicity of pivot points definitely makes them a useful tool to add to your trading toolbox. It allows you to see possible areas that are likely to cause price movement. You’ll become more in sync to market movements and make better trading decisions.

• Learn to use pivot points along with other technical analysis tools such candlestick patterns, MACD crossover, moving average crossovers, Stochastics overbought/oversold levels. The greater the confirmation, the greater your probability of success!

Fibonacci

We will be using Fibonacci ratios a lot in our trading so you better learn it and love it like your mother. Fibonacci is a huge subject and there are many different studies of Fibonacci with weird names but we’re going to stick to two: retracement and extension.

Let me first start by introducing you to the Fib man himself…Leonard Fibonacci.

Leonard Fibonacci was a famous Italian mathematician, also called a super duper uber geek, who had an “aha!” moment and discovered a simple series of numbers that created ratios describing the natural proportions of things in the universe

The ratios arise from the following number series: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 ……

This series of numbers is derived by starting with 1 followed by 2 and then adding 1 + 2 to get 3, the third number. Then, adding 2 + 3 to get 5, the fourth number, and so on.

After the first few numbers in the sequence, if you measure the ratio of any number to that of the next higher number you get .618. For example, 34 divided by 55 equals 0.618.

If you measure the ratio between alternate numbers you get .382. For example, 34 divided by 89 = 0.382 and that’s as far as into the explanation as we’ll go.

These ratios are called the “golden mean.” Okay that’s enough mumbo jumbo. Even I’m about to fall asleep with all these numbers. I'll just cut to the chase; these are the ratios you have to know:

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764

Fibonacci Extension Levels
0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618

You won’t really need to know how to calculate all of this. Your charting software will do all the work for you. But it’s always good to be familiar with the basic theory behind the indicator so you’ll have knowledge to impress your date.

Traders use the Fibonacci retracement levels as support and resistance levels. Since so many traders watch these same levels and place buy and sell orders on them to enter trades or place stops, the support and resistance levels become a self-fulfilling expectation.

Traders use the Fibonacci extension levels as profit taking levels. Again, since so many traders are watching these levels and placing buy and sell orders to take profits, this tool usually works due self-fulfilling expectations.

Most charting software includes both Fibonacci retracement levels and extension level tools. In order to apply Fibonacci levels to your charts, you’ll need to identify Swing High and Swing Low points.

A Swing High is a candlestick with at least two lower highs on both the left and right of itself.

A Swing Low is a candlestick with at least two higher lows on both the left and right of itself.

Let's take a closer look at Fibonacci retracement levels...

Fibonacci Retracement

In an uptrend, the general idea is to go long the market on a retracement to a Fibonacci support level. In order to find the retracement levels, you would click on a significant Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High. This will display each of the Retracement Levels showing both the ratio and corresponding price level. Let’s take a look at some examples of markets in an uptrend.

This is an hourly chart of USD/JPY. Here we plotted the Fibonacci Retracement Levels by clicking on the Swing Low at 110.78 on 07/12/05 and dragging the cursor to the Swing High at 112.27 on 07/13/05. You can see the levels plotted by the software. The Retracement Levels were 111.92 (0.236), 111.70 (0.382), 111.52 (0.500), and 111.35 (0.618). Now the expectation is that if USD/JPY retraces from this high, it will find support at one of the Fibonacci Levels because traders will be placing buy orders at these levels as the market pulls back.

Now let’s look at what actually happened after the Swing High occurred. The market pulled back right through the 0.236 level and continued the next day piercing the 0.382 level but never actually closing below it. Later on that day, the market resumed its upward move. Clearly buying at the 0.382 level would have been a good short term trade.

Now let’s see how we would use Fibonacci Retracement Levels during a downtrend. This is an hourly chart for EUR/USD. As you can see, we found our Swing High at 1.3278 on 02/28/05 and our Swing Low at 1.3169 a couple hours later. The Retracement Levels were 1.3236 (0.618), 1.3224 (0.500), 1.3211 (0.382), and 1.3195 (.236). The expectation for a downtrend is if it retraces from this high, it will encounter resistance at one of the Fibonacci Levels because traders will be placing sell orders at these levels as the market attempts to rally.

Let’s check out what happened next. Now isn’t that a thing of beauty! The market did try to rally but it barely past the 0.500 level spiking to a high 1.3227 and it actually closed below it. After that bar, you can see that the rally reversed and the downward move continued. You would have made some nice dough selling at the 0.382 level.

Here’s another example. This is an hourly chart for GBP/USD. We had a Swing High of 1.7438 on 07/26/05 and a Swing Low of 1.7336 the next day. So our Retracement Levels are: 1.7399 (0.618), 1.7387 (0.500), 1.7375 (0.382), and 1.7360 (0.236). Looking at the chart, the market looks like it tried to break the 0.500 level on several occasions, but try as it may, it failed. So would putting a sell order at the 0.500 level be a good trade?

If you did, you would have lost some serious cheddar! Take a look at what happened. The Swing Low looked to be the bottom for this downtrend as the market rallied above the Swing High point.

You can see from these examples the market usually finds at least temporary support (during an uptrend) or resistance (during a downtrend) at the Fibonacci Retracements Levels. It’s apparent that there a few problems to deal with here. There’s no way of knowing which level will provide support. The 0.236 seems to provide the weakest support/resistance, while the other levels provide support/resistance at about the same frequency. Even though the charts above show the market usually only retracing to the 0.382 level, it doesn’t mean the price will hit that level every time and reverse. Sometimes it’ll hit the 0.500 and reverse, other times it’ll hit the 0.618 and reverse, and other times the price will totally ignore Mr. Fibonacci and blow past all the levels like similar to the way Allen Iverson blows past his defenders with his nasty first step. Remember, the market will not always resume its uptrend after finding temporary support, but instead continue to decline below the last Swing Low. Same thing for a downtrend. The market may instead decide to continue above the last Swing High.

The placement of stops is a challenge. It’s probably best to place stops below the last Swing Low (on an uptrend) or above the Swing High (on a downtrend), but this requires taking a high level of risk in proportion to the likely profit potential in the trade. This is called reward-to-risk ratio. In a later lesson, you will learn more money management and risk control and how you would only take trades with certain reward-to-risk ratios.

Another problem is determining which Swing Low and Swing High points to start from to create the Fibonacci Retracement Levels. People look at charts differently and so will have their own version of where the Swing High and Swing Low points should be. The point is, there is no one right way to do it, but the bad thing is sometimes it becomes a guessing game.

Fibonacci Extension

The next use of Fibonacci you will be applying is that of targets. Let’s start with an example in an uptrend.

In an uptrend, the general idea is to take profits on a long trade at a Fibonacci Price Extension Level. You determine the Fibonacci extension levels by using three mouse clicks. First, click on a significant Swing Low, then drag your cursor and click on the most recent Swing High. Finally, drag your cursor back down and click on the retracement Swing Low. This will display each of the Price Extension Levels showing both the ratio and corresponding price levels.

On this 1-hour USD/CHF chart, we plotted the Fibonacci extension levels by clicking on the Swing Low at 1.2447 on 08/14/05 and dragged the cursor to the Swing High at 1.2593 on 08/15/15 and then down to the retracement Swing Low of 1.2541 on 08/15/05. The following Fibonacci extension levels created are 1.2597 (0.382), 1.2631 (0.618), 1.2687 (1.000), 1.2743 (1.382), 1.2760 (1.500), and 1.2777 (1.618).

Now let’s look at what actually happened after the retracement Swing Low occurred.

• The market rallied to the 0.500 level
• fell back to the retracement Swing Low
• then rallied back up to the 0.500 level
• fell back slightly
• rallied to the 0.618 level
• fell back to the 0.382 level which acted as support
• then rallied all the way to the 1.382 level
• consolidated a bit
• then rallied to the 1.500 level

You can see from these examples that the market often finds at least temporary resistance at the Fibonacci extension levels - not always, but often. As in the examples of the retracement levels, it should be apparent that there are a few problems to deal with here as well. First, there is no way of knowing which level will provide resistance. The 0.500 level was a good level to cover any long trades in the above example since the market retraced back to its original level, but if you didn’t get back in the trade, you would have left a lot of profits on the table.

Another problem is determining which Swing Low to start from in creating the Fibonacci Extension Levels. One way is from the last Swing Low as we did in the examples; another is from the lowest Swing Low of the past 30 bars. Again, the point is that there is no one right way to do it, and consequently it becomes a guessing game.

Alright, let’s see how Fibonacci extension levels can be used during a downtrend. In a downtrend, the general idea is to take profits on a short trade at a Fibonacci price extension level since the market often finds at least temporary support at these levels.

On this 1-hour EUR/USD chart, we plotted the Fibonacci extension levels by clicking on the Swing High at 1.21377 on 07/15/05 and dragged the cursor to the Swing Low at 1.2021 on 08/15/15 and then down to the retracement High of 1.2085. The following Fibonacci extension levels created are 1.2041 (0.382), 1.2027 (0.500), 1.2013 (0.618), 1.1969 (1.000), 1.1925 (1.382), 1.1911 (1.500), and 1.1897 (1.618).

Now let’s look at what actually happened after the retracement Swing Low occurred.

• The market fell down almost to the 0.382 level which for right now is acting as a support level
• The market then traded sideways between the retracement Swing High level and 0.382 level
• Finally, the market broke through the 0.382 and rested on the 0.500 level
• Then it broke the 0.500 level and fell all the way down to the 1.000 level

Alone, Fibonacci levels will not make you rich. However, Fibonacci levels are definitely useful as part of an effective trading method that includes other analysis and techniques. You see, the key to an effective trading system is to integrate a few indicators (not too many) that are applied in a way that is not obvious to most observers.

All successful traders know it’s how you use and integrate the indicators (including Fibonacci) that makes the difference. The lesson learned here is that Fibonacci Levels can be a useful tool, but never enter or exit a trade based on Fibonacci Levels alone.

Summary

Fibonacci retracement levels are 0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764

Traders use the Fibonacci retracement levels as support and resistance levels. Since so many traders watch these same levels and place buy and sell orders on them to enter trades or place stops, the support and resistance levels become a self-fulfilling expectation.

Fibonacci extension levels are 0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618

Traders use the Fibonacci extension levels as profit taking levels. Again, since so many traders are watching these levels and placing buy and sell orders to take profits, this tool usually works due self-fulfilling expectations.

In order to apply Fibonacci levels to your charts, you’ll need to identify Swing High and Swing Low points.

A Swing High is a candlestick with at least two lower highs on both the left and right of itself.

A Swing Low is a candlestick with at least two higher lows on both the left and right of itself.

Elliott Wave Theory

Back in the old school days during the 1920-30s, there was this mad genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott. Elliott discovered that stock markets, thought to behave in a somewhat chaotic manner, actually, did not.

They traded in repetitive cycles, which he pointed out were the emotions of investors and traders caused by outside influences (ahem, CNBC) or the predominant psychology of the masses at the time.

Elliott explained that the upward and downward swings of the mass psychology always showed up in the same repetitive patterns, which were then divided into patterns he called "waves". He needed to claim this observation and so he came up with a super original name: The Elliott Wave Theory.

The 5 – 3 Wave Patterns

Mr. Elliott showed that a trending market moves in what he calls a 5-3 wave pattern. The first 5-wave pattern is called impulse waves and the last 3-wave pattern is called corrective waves.

Let’s first take a look at the 5-wave impulse pattern. It’s easier if you see it as a picture:

That still looks kind of confusing. Let’s splash some color on this bad boy.

Ah magnefico! Me likes colors. It’s so pretty! I’ve color-coded each wave along with its wave count.

Here is a short description of what happens during each wave. I am going to use stocks for my example since stocks is what Mr. Elliott used but it really doesn’t matter what it is. It can easily be currencies, bonds, gold, oil, or Tickle Me Elmo dolls. The important thing is the Elliott Wave Theory can also be applied to the foreign exchange market.

Wave 1
The stock makes its initial move upwards. This is usually caused by a relatively small number of people that all of the sudden (for a variety of reasons real or imagined) feel that the price of the stock is cheap so it’s a perfect time to buy. This causes the price to rise.

Wave 2
At this point enough people who were in the original wave consider the stock overvalued and take profits. This causes the stock to go down. However, the stock will not make it to its previous lows before the stock is considered a bargain again.

Wave 3
This is usually the longest and strongest wave. The stock has caught the attention of the mass public. More people find out about the stock and want to buy it. This causes the stock’s price to go higher and higher. This wave usually exceeds the high created at the end of wave 1.

Wave 4
People take profits because the stock is considered expensive again. This wave tends to be weak because there are usually more people that are still bullish on the stock and are waiting to “buy on the dips”.

Wave 5
This is the point that most people get on the stock, and is most driven by hysteria. You usually start seeing the CEO of the company on the front page of major magazines as the Person of the Year. People start coming up with ridiculous reasons to buy the stock and try to choke you when you disagree with them. This is when the stock becomes the most overpriced. Contrarians start shorting the stock which starts the ABC pattern.

ABC Correction

The 5-wave trends are then corrected and reversed by 3-wave countertrends. Letters are used instead of numbers to track the correction. Check out this example of smokin’ hot 3-wave corrective wave pattern!

Just because I’ve been using a bull market as my primary example doesn’t mean the Elliott Wave theory doesn’t work on bear markets. The same 5 – 3 wave pattern can look like this:

Waves within a Wave

The other important thing you have to know about the Elliot Wave Theory is that a wave is made of sub-waves? Huh? Let me show you another picture. Pictures are great aren't they? Yee-haw!

Do you see how Wave 1 is made up of a smaller 5-wave impulse pattern and Wave 2 is made up of smaller 3-wave corrective pattern? Each wave is always comprised of smaller wave patterns.

Okay, let’s look at a real example.

As you can see, waves aren’t shaped perfectly in real life. You’ll also learn its sometimes difficult to label waves. But the more you stare at charts the better you’ll get.

Okay, that’s all you need to know about the Elliott Wave Theory. Remember the market moves in waves. Now when you hear somebody say “Wave 2 is complete.” You’ll know what the heck he is talking about.

If you wish to become an Elliott Wave Theory guru, you can learn more about it at www.elliottwave.com.

Summary

• According to the Elliott Wave Theory, the market moves in repetitive patterns called waves.
• A trending market moves in a 5-3 wave pattern. The first 5-wave pattern are called impulse waves. The second 3-wave pattern are called corrective waves.
• If you look hard enough at a chart, you'll see that the market really does move in waves.

What is a Candlestick?

Back in the day when Godzilla was still a cute little lizard, the Japanese created their own old school version of technical analysis to trade rice. A westerner by the name of Steve Nison “discovered” this secret technique on how to read charts from a fellow Japanese broker and Japanese candlesticks lived happily ever after. Steve researched, studied, lived, breathed, ate candlesticks, began writing about it and slowly grew in popularity in 90s. To make a long story short, without Steve Nison, candle charts might have remained a buried secret. Steve Nison is Mr. Candlestick.

Okay so what the heck are candlesticks?

The best way to explain is by using a picture:

Candlesticks are formed using the open, high, low and close.

• If the close is above the open, then a hollow candlestick (usually displayed as white) is drawn.
• If the close is below the open, then a filled candlestick (usually displayed as black) is drawn.
• The hollow or filled section of the candlestick is called the “real body” or body.
• The thin lines poking above and below the body display the high/low range and are called shadows.
• The top of the upper shadow is the “high”.
• The bottom of the lower shadow is the “low”.

Sexy Bodies

Just like humans, candlesticks have different body sizes. And when it comes to forex trading, there’s nothing naughtier than checking out the bodies of candlesticks!

Long bodies indicate strong buying or selling. The longer the body is, the more intense the buying or selling pressure.

Short bodies imply very little buying or selling activity. In street forex lingo, bulls mean buyers and bears mean sellers.

Long white candlesticks show strong buying pressure. The longer the white candlestick, the further the close is above the open. This indicates that prices increased considerably from open to close and buyers were aggressive. In other words, the bulls are kicking the bears’ butts big time!

Long black (filled) candlesticks show strong selling pressure. The longer the black candlestick, the further the close is below the open. This indicates that prices fell a great deal from the open and sellers were aggressive. In other words, the bears were grabbing the bulls by their horns and body slamming them.

Mysterious Shadows

The upper and lower shadows on candlesticks provide important clues about the trading session.

Upper shadows signify the session high. Lower shadows signify the session low.

Candlesticks with long shadows show that trading action occurred well past the open and close.

Candlesticks with short shadows indicate that most of the trading action was confined near the open and close.

If a candlestick has a long upper shadow and short lower shadow, this means that buyers flexed their muscles and bided prices higher, but for one reason or another, sellers came in and drove prices back down to end the session back near its open price.

If a candlestick has a long lower shadow and short upper shadow, this means that sellers flashed their washboard abs and forced price lower, but for one reason or another, buyers came in and drove prices back up to end the session back near its open price.

Spinning Tops

Candlesticks with a long upper shadow, long lower shadow and small real bodies are called spinning tops. The color of the real body is not very important.

The pattern indicates the indecision between the buyers and sellers

The small real body (whether hollow or filled) shows little movement from open to close, and the shadows indicate that both buyers and sellers were fighting but nobody could gain the upper hand.

Even though the session opened and closed with little change, prices moved significantly higher and lower in the meantime. Neither buyers nor sellers could gain the upper hand, and the result was a standoff.

If a spinning top forms during an uptrend, this usually means there aren’t many buyers left and a possible reversal in direction could occur.

If a spinning top forms during a downtrend, this usually means there aren’t many sellers left and a possible reversal in direction could occur.

Marubozu

Sounds like some kind of voodoo magic huh? "I will cast the evil spell of the Marubozu on you!" Fortunately, that's not what it means. Marubozu means there are no shadows from the bodies. Depending on whether the candlestick’s body is filled or hollow, the high and low are the same as it’s open or close. If you look at the picture below, there are two types of Marubozus.

A White Marubozu contains a long white body with no shadows. The open price equals the low price and the close price equals the high price. This is a very bullish candle as it shows that buyers were in control the whole entire session. It usually becomes the first part of a bullish continuation or a bullish reversal pattern.

A Black Marubozu contains a long black body with no shadows. The open equals the high and the close equals the low. This is a very bearish candle as it shows that sellers controlled the price action the whole entire session. It usually implies bearish continuation or bearish reversal.

Doji

Doji candlesticks have the same open and close price or at least their bodies are extremely short. The doji should have a very small body that appears as a thin line.

Doji suggest indecision or a struggle for turf positioning between buyers and sellers. Prices move above and below the open price during the session, but close at or very near the open price.

Neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control and the result was essentially a draw.

There are four special types of Doji lines. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary and the resulting candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign. The word "Doji" refers to both the singular and plural form.

When a doji forms on your chart, pay special attention to the preceding candlesticks.

If a doji forms after a series of candlesticks with long hollow bodies (like white marubozus), the doji signals that the buyers are becoming exhausted and weakening. In order for price to continue rising, more buyers are needed but there aren’t anymore! Sellers are licking their chops and are looking to come in and drive the price back down.

Keep in mind that even after a doji forms, this doesn’t mean to automatically short. Confirmation is still needed. Wait for a bearish candlestick to close below the long white candlestick’s open.

If a doji forms after a series of candlesticks with long filled bodies (like black marubozus), the doji signals that sellers are becoming exhausted and weakening. In order for price to continue falling, more sellers are needed but sellers are all tapped out! Buyers are foaming in the mouth for a chance to get in cheap.

While the decline is sputtering due to lack of new sellers, further buying strength is required to confirm any reversal. Look for a white candlestick to close above the long black candlestick’s open.

Prior Trend

For a pattern to qualify as a reversal pattern, there should be a prior trend to reverse. Bullish reversals require a preceding downtrend and bearish reversals require a prior uptrend. The direction of the trend can be determined using trendlines, moving averages, or other aspects of technical analysis.

Hammer and Hanging Man

The hammer and hanging man look exactly alike but have totally different meaning depending on past price action. Both have cute little bodies (black or white), long lower shadows and short or absent upper shadows.

The hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that forms during a downtrend. It is named because the market is hammering out a bottom.

When price is falling, hammers signal that the bottom is near and price will start rising again. The long lower shadow indicates that sellers pushed prices lower, but buyers were able to overcome this selling pressure and closed near the open.

Word to the wise… just because you see a hammer form in a downtrend doesn’t mean you automatically place a buy order! More bullish confirmation is needed before it’s safe to pull the trigger. A good confirmation example would be to wait for a white candlestick to close above the open of the candlestick on the left side of the hammer.

Recognition Criteria:

• The long shadow is about two or three times of the real body.
• Little or no upper shadow.
• The real body is at the upper end of the trading range.
• The color of the real body is not important.

The hanging man is a bearish reversal pattern that can also mark a top or strong resistance level. When price is rising, the formation of a hanging man indicates that sellers are beginning to outnumber buyers. The long lower shadow shows that sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Buyers were able to push the price back up some but only near the open. This should set off alarms since this tells us that there are no buyers left to provide the necessary momentum to keep raising the price. .

Recognition Criteria:

• A long lower shadow which is about two or three times of the real body.
• Little or no upper shadow.
• The real body is at the upper end of the trading range.
• The color of the body is not important, though a black body is more bearish than a white body.

Candlesticks are formed using the open, high, low and close.

• If the close is above the open, then a hollow candlestick (usually displayed as white) is drawn.
• If the close is below the open, then a filled candlestick (usually displayed as black) is drawn.
• The hollow or filled section of the candlestick is called the “real body” or body.
• The thin lines poking above and below the body display the high/low range and are called shadows.
• The top of the upper shadow is the “high”.
• The bottom of the lower shadow is the “low”.

Long bodies indicate strong buying or selling. The longer the body is, the more intense the buying or selling pressure.

Short bodies imply very little buying or selling activity. In street forex lingo, bulls mean buyers and bears mean sellers.

Upper shadows signify the session high.

Lower shadows signify the session low.

Candlesticks with a long upper shadow, long lower shadow and small real bodies are called spinning tops. The pattern indicates the indecision between the buyers and sellers

Marubozu means there are no shadows from the bodies. Depending on whether the candlestick’s body is filled or hollow, the high and low are the same as it’s open or close.

Doji candlesticks have the same open and close price or at least their bodies are extremely short.

The hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that forms during a downtrend. It is named because the market is hammering out a bottom.

The hanging man is a bearish reversal pattern that can also mark a top or strong resistance level.

The inverted hammer occurs when price has been falling suggests the possibility of a reversal.

The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that looks identical to the inverted hammer but occurs when price has been rising.

The History of Japanese Candlesticks

Throughout Candlestick Analysis you are going to find many war-like references. Between 1500 and 1600 the territories of today's Japan were at constant war. Each daimyo (feudal lord) was in constant contention to take over their neighbor. This one hundred year period is known as Sengoku Jidai or the "Age of Country at War". This was a definite period of turmoil. It slowly came to order in the early 1600's through three dynamic generals - Nobunaga Oda, Hideyoshi Toyotomi, and Leyasu Tokugawa. Their combined leadership prowess has become legendary folklore in Japan's history. Their achievements are described as: "Nobunaga piled the rice, Hideyoshi kneaded the dough, and Tokugawa ate the cake." All the contributions from these great generals unified Japan into one nation. Tokugawa's family ruled the country from 1615 to 1867. This become known as the Tokugawa Shogunate Era.

While the Candlestick methodology was being developed, a military environment persisted in Japan. Understandably, the Candlestick technique employs extensive military terminology for its explanations. Investing is correlated to battle. It requires the same tactical abilities to win. The investor has to prepare for winning trades as a general prepares for battle. A strategy is required, the psychology of coming events have to be thought through. Competition comes into play. Aggressive maneuvers and strategic withdrawals are required to eventually win the war - to achieve financial success.

As stability settled over the Japanese culture during the early 17th centuy, new opportunities became apparent also. The centralized government lead by Tokugawa diminished the feudal system. Local markets began to expand to a national scale. The demise of local markets created the growth of technical analysis in Japan.

Osaka became regarded as Japan's capital during the Toyotomi reign. Its location near the sea made it a commercial center. Land travel was slow and dangerous, not to mention costly. It became a natural location for the development of the national depot system, assembling and disbursing supplies and market products. It rapidly evolved into Japan's largest city of finance and commerce. Osaka, the "Kitchen of Japan" with its vast system of warehouses, eventually established an atmosphere of price stability by reducing regional imbalances of supply. Osaka became the profit center of all Japan, completely altering the normal social standards. In all other cities the quest for profits was despised. Japan was composed of four classes, the Soldier, the Farmer, the Artisan, and the Merchant. It was not until the 1700's that the merchants broke down the social barrier. "Mokarimakka" which means " are you making a profit?" is still the common greeting in Osaka today.

Under Hideyoshi's reign, a man named Yodoya Keian become a successful war merchant. He had exceptional abilities to transport, distribute and set the price of rice. His reputation become so well known, his front yard become the first rice exchange. Unfortunately, he became very wealthy. Unfortunate because the Bakufu (the military government lead by the Shogun) relieved him of all his fortune. This was done based upon the charge that he was living a life of luxury beyond his social rank. This was during a period in the mid 1600's when the Bakufu was becoming very leary of the merchant class. A number of merchants tried to corner the rice market. They were punished by having their children executed. They were exiled and their wealth was confiscated.

The Dojima Rice Exchange, the institutionalized market that developed in Yodoya's front yard, was established in the late 1600's. Merchants were now capable of grading the rice, and negotiated setting the market price. After 1710, actual rice trad

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen, European Session - 10/06/08

106,64. USD JPY broke 106,30 resistance. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD JPY. The uptrend should continue to gather momentum. The price should find a resistance below 107,30 (65 pips). If the resistance is broken then the target will be 109,00 (235 pips).
=> We could take a long position at 106,50. We will put the stop loss below 106,00 (-50 pips). The targets are 107,50 (+100 pips) 109,00 (+250 pips). Each trade is dangerous, take care and put your stop loss. Trade configuration (1 Speculative -> 4 Trend following): 2.

Resistances

106,90 - 107,30

Supports

106,00 - 105,30

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

Short term (Intraday)

106,08. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The price is just bellow 106,25 resistance. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD JPY. The consolidation should continue. The price should find a resistance below 106,25 / 106,50. If the resistance is broken then the target will be 108,00.
We are waiting for a break of resistance to take a long position.

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, European Session - 06/06/08

1,5579. EUR USD broke 1,5480 resistance. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is high. Oscillators are neutral. The consolidation should continue. The price should continue to move in 1,5480 / 1,5630 range. We won’t take a position.

Resistances

1,5630 - 1,5680

Supports

1,5520 - 1,5480

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

Short term (Intraday)

1,5403. EUR USD broke 1,5430 support. EUR USD is in an downtrend directed by 1H exponential moving averages. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are deviated. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on EUR USD. The downtrend should continue on 1,5350 (50 pips) support. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

Short term (Intraday)

Resistances

105,60 - 105,90

Supports

105,00 - 104,65

Long term chart

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 05 juin 2008 04:50 GMT

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

Short term (Intraday)

105,15. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. USD JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in 104,00 / 106,00 range. We won't take a position.

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

Short term (Intraday)

1,5459. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on EUR USD. The downtrend should continue on 1,5350 (100 pips) support.
=> We could take a short position at 1,5460. We will put the stop loss above 1,5500 (-40 pips). The targets are 1,5350 (110 pips) 1,5280 (180 pips). Each trade is dangerous, take care and put your stop loss. Trade configuration (1 Speculative -> 4 Trend following): 2.