Mon, Mar 17 2008, 12:49 GMT
by Peter Rosentreich
ACM - Advanced Currency Markets
News and Events:
The UsdJpy fell below 99 and EurUsd hit a record high after Bear Stearns said a worsening cash position forced the Wall Street firm to secure emergency financing. News that the New York Federal Reserve and JP Morgan Chase were to provide funds for the fifth-largest US investment bank signaled more credit turmoil to come and added to investor fears that the economy is in for a long recession.
UsdJpy dropped -1.66% to 99.08. It was down nearly 11% so far in 2008. EurUsd hit 1.5688 on Friday, all-time high, before easing to 1.5680 up 0.38%. UsdChf fell below parity for the first time ever, trading at 0.9973 before easing to 0.9979 -1.23%.
Analysts said the dollar is likely to remain on the ropes because the Fed may have to do much more to ease market nerves, either by cutting interest rates even more aggressively or by taking additional measures to inject liquidity. In addition to providing funds to Bear Stearns, the Fed last week announced plans to lend $200 bio to primary dealers and accept various mortgage debt as collateral.
US economic data on Friday did no favors for the Dollar. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to a fresh multi-year low. A separate report showed underlying inflation unchanged in February.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
08:15 CHF January Retail Sales 1.3% vs 1.2%
12:30 USD March Empire Manufacturing -8 vs -11.72
12:30 CAD January Manufacturing 0.9% vs -3.4%
13:00 USD January Net TIC Flows 55B vs 56.5B
13:15 USD February Industrial Production -0.1% vs 0.1% (MoM)
13:15 USD February Capacity Utilisation 81% vs 81.5% (MoM)
16:00 USD March national Bank Chairman Roth speaks, Frankfurt
17:00 USD March NAHB Housing Market index 20 vs 20
The Risk Today:
EurUsd Euro posted a new all-time high 1.5688 last Friday. Medium term trading range is still 1.4500 – 1.6000. Initial support hold 1.5533 Friday low. Psychological 1.5000 level marks strong key support before 1.4500 pivot point. Initial resistance hold 1.6000 key level.
GbpUsd Cable advanced as high as 2.0398 last week, 2 ½ month high. Further strength might open the way toward 2.0577 3-month high. Psychological 2.0100 former resistance level marks support. Renewed pressure below 2.0000 might reopen the way down to 1.9337 January low and 1.9105 (50% retracement of 1.7049 – 2.1162 advance). Further support holds 1.9630 former Trendline resistance.
UsdJpy It remains weak in the last 4-week down trendline. Recent weakness open the way toward 101.68 January 2005 low and 101.22 November 1999 low. Bottom support holds 95. On the Upside, only a return over 100 may open the way up to 110.10 strong (Trendline) resistance and mid January double top ahead of 111.92 early January high. Initial support holds 95.74 today low.
UsdChf Market remains weak, having broke down through 1.0000 last Friday psychological level. Further weakness open the down to 0.9639 intraday low. Uptrend would return over 1.0000 and 1.0700 opening the way for 1.1130 (38.2% of 1.1603 – 1.0838 decline). Early January double top 1.1191 marks strong resistance.
Resistance and Support:
| EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | USDCHF |
| 1.6000 S | 2.0577 T | 103.30 T | 1.0761 M |
| 1.5905 S | 2.0447 S | 101.22 M | 1.0200 S |
| 1.5771 M | 2.0140 M | 99.11 S | 1.0000 P |
| 1.576 | 2.012 | 96.95 | 0.9835 |
| 1.5533 M | 2.0100 K | 95.75 M | 0.9896 M |
| 1.5000 K | 2.0000 P | 95.00 T | 0.9639 K |
| 1.4500 P | 1.9630 K | 79.70 K | 0.9500 T |
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar