Mon, Apr 7 2008, 08:16 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team
Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
Good morning from wonderful Hamburg and welcome to Varengold’s Daily FX Report. There is a 50% chance that the US could go into recession, former Fed chairman Greenspan tells El Pais newspaper in an interview. He says the US has not yet entered recessionary state marked by sharp falls in orders, strong rises in unemployment and intensive weakening of the economy.
Markets review
The USD/JPY loses 0,7% on Friday after data showed US employers cut jobs for third straight month. The weaker than expected jobs data underscored market expectations for Fed to cut interest rates further and dragged the USD lower. In the early Monday session rallied the USD and rose as high as 102,68 as traders focused on fund allocations by Japanese investors at the start of a new financial year. Additionally rose the Japan index of leading economic indicators to a preliminary 50,0 in February from 36,4 in January.
The EUR/USD fell 0,4 % to 1,5670 because traders are wary that European officials may say more about the USD falls versus the EUR ahead of a meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers and central bank governors of Friday.
After two month of major gains Canada posted a more moderate increase of 14.600 jobs in March and pushed the jobless rate to 6,0 % from 5,8 % in February. The reaction of the USD/CAD was at 1,0081 unessential.
Technical analysis
GBP/JPY
At the beginning of March slipped the GBP/JPY out of the horizontal trend channel down to a three year low. The afterwards recovery is coming close to the resistance at 206,00. A walk across the level let expect more long potential.
NZD/USD
The positive trend channel was replaced in March from a short-lived horizontal chart direction. The afterwards break through the resistance at 0,7900 has developed a tapered trend channel. This movement let expect short potential.
| Currency | Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivotpoint | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| EUR / USD | 1,5624 | 1,5653 | 1,5668 | 1,5697 | 1,5712 |
| USD / JPY | 101,91 | 102,08 | 102,38 | 102,56 | 102,87 |
| GBP / USD | 1,9915 | 1,9935 | 1,9950 | 1,9970 | 1,9985 |
| USD / CHF | 1,0076 | 1,0086 | 1,0108 | 1,0118 | 1,0140 |
| AUD / USD | 0,9082 | 0,9121 | 0,9140 | 0,9179 | 0,9198 |
| USD / CAD | 1,0029 | 1,0037 | 1,0051 | 1,0059 | 1,0073 |
| NZD / USD | 0,7800 | 0,7825 | 0,7841 | 0,7866 | 0,7882 |
| EUR / AUD | 1,7040 | 1,7079 | 1,7140 | 1,7179 | 1,7240 |
| EUR / CAD | 1,5704 | 1,5729 | 1,5752 | 1,5852 | 1,5868 |
| EUR / GBP | 0,7835 | 0,7846 | 0,7854 | 0,7865 | 0,7872 |
| EUR / JPY | 159,78 | 160,07 | 160,43 | 160,72 | 161,08 |
| GBP / CHF | 2,0111 | 2,0132 | 2,0168 | 2,0189 | 2,0225 |
| GBP / JPY | 203,46 | 203,78 | 204,26 | 204,58 | 205,06 |
| Date | Time (GMT) | Economic Indicator | Last |
| 07.04.2008 | 05:00 | JP Coincident indicator | 20,0 |
| 07.04.2008 | 05:45 | CH Unemployment Rate Adj. | 2,50 |
| 07.04.2008 | 06:45 | FR Trade bal EURapprox time | -3.391 |
| 07.04.2008 | 08:30 | EZ Sentix Index | 0,40 |
| 07.04.2008 | 10:00 | DE Industrial output mm | 1,8 |
| 07.04.2008 | 12:30 | VA Building permits | -2,9 |
| 07.04.2008 | 19:00 | US Consumer credit mm, $ | 6,9 |
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