Thu, Apr 10 2008, 08:27 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team
Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
Today markets are breathing for the ECB’s policy meeting, with analysts expecting the bank to hold interest rates steady. But it’s ECB President Trichet’s press conference which will be the focus of attention and in special how he will acknowledge the impact of the credit crisis on the euro zone economy.
Markets review
In March Australia’s economy created 14.800 jobs, above a consensus forecast for a 10.000 increase. The unemployment rate was 4,1% in March. After the promulgation the AUD hits a session high of 0,9346.
The EUR/GBP hit a record low of 0,8027 on market expectations that the BOE will cut interest rates to 5% from 5,25% later in the day. Sterling came under pressure after data showed that UK consumer morale fell and Britain’s economic growth slowed to 0,5% in the three month to March from 0,6% in the three month to February.
The USD/JPY fell broadly on Thursday. The dollar’s yield advantage has been lost through aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to lower interest rates further at its April meeting. Traders mentioned the USD weakness may also be partly related to a CNBC report that Merrill Lynch has to record write-downs between $6 to $6,5 billion and will likely post a quarterly loss.
Technical analysis
USD/JPY
With the beginning of April, the market starts a side movement. The level where the market moves is around 102,00. On his way it uses the whole range between 101,35 and 102,90. The first clear move over one these lines could be a sign for the next trend direction.
EUR/USD
At the end of March stopped the strong up trend. The EUR/USD broke through the lower trend line of the channel. After a short period with down movements, it came back at 1,5854 and established a resistance at this level. Should it break through this level there could be more long potential.
| Currency | Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivotpoint | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| EUR / USD | 1,5610 | 1,5720 | 1,5792 | 1,5902 | 1,5974 |
| USD / JPY | 100,68 | 101,22 | 102,03 | 102,57 | 103,38 |
| GBP / USD | 1,9587 | 1,9669 | 1,9730 | 1,9812 | 1,9873 |
| USD / CHF | 0,9855 | 0,9932 | 1,0050 | 1,0127 | 1,0245 |
| AUD / USD | 0,9219 | 0,9253 | 0,9294 | 0,9328 | 0,9369 |
| USD / CAD | 1,0082 | 1,0135 | 1,0176 | 1,0229 | 1,0270 |
| NZD / USD | 0,7894 | 0,7935 | 0,7970 | 0,8011 | 0,8046 |
| EUR / AUD | 1,6745 | 1,6893 | 1,6977 | 1,7125 | 1,7209 |
| EUR / CAD | 1,5807 | 1,5963 | 1,6053 | 1,6209 | 1,6299 |
| EUR / CHF | 1,5737 | 1,5795 | 1,5875 | 1,5933 | 1,6013 |
| EUR / GBP | 0,7943 | 0,7978 | 0,8001 | 0,8036 | 0,8059 |
| EUR / JPY | 160,16 | 160,66 | 161,07 | 161,57 | 161,98 |
| GBP / CHF | 1,9552 | 1,9669 | 1,9839 | 1,9956 | 2,0126 |
| GBP / JPY | 199,33 | 200,19 | 201,38 | 202,24 | 203,43 |
| Date | Time (GMT) | Economic Indicator | Last |
| 10.04.2008 | 08:30 | GB Trade Balance GBP | -7,50 |
| 10.04.2008 | 11:00 | GB BoE rate decision | 5,25 |
| 10.04.2008 | 11:45 | EZ ECB rate decision | 4,00 |
| 10.04.2008 | 12:30 | USInitial claims | 407 |
| 10.04.2008 | 12:30 | USInternational trade, $ | -58,20 |
| 10.04.2008 | 12:30 | CAExports C$ | 37,98 |
| 10.04.2008 | 18:00 | USFederal budget, $ | -96,27 |
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar