Tue, Feb 26 2008, 07:00 GMT
by Cornelius Luca
As expected, the dollar was helped on Monday by a better “take” on MBIA (no downgrade), one of the monolines in trouble. It rallied versus the low yielders yen and franc while collapsing versus the commodity currencies, and this is good news: it means that the appetite for risk is up again. The stocks should go up today, and the euro and pound should follow.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar traded sideways after nailing a three-week high on Friday. It’s been marching higher since February 8 and my model remains long since February 14. The pair is slightly overbought, but sideways to higher trading is favored. Initial resistance is still in place at 1.4875. Above it, resistance comes at 1.4966 from a pivot high. Immediate support remains at 1.4790. Below 1.4765, there is further support at 1.4715. The next level is 1.4640.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Monday after the support of a rising trendline held, and my model reversed short positions. Mixed to higher trading is likely today. Immediate resistance is seen at 108.45. Strong resistance follows at 108.75. Further resistance lies at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65. Key support comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45. Distant support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot that targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar traded sideways on Monday. My model went long on Thursday and the recovery should continue in the medium term. Initial resistance comes at 1.9738. A break above this level would signal a further rally to 1.9787. This is followed by 1.9960. Immediate support is now seen at 1.9615. The next level follows at 1.9575.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss recovered Friday’s losses, as expected, but my model remains (barely) short. Mixed trading is likely. Initial resistance now comes at 1.0960. The next level is 1.1000. Distant resistance comes at 1.1065. Immediate support remains at 1.0828. Below 1.0770, support is pegged at 1.0729 from a pivot low.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar