Mon, Feb 25 2008, 10:52 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
Japan's Demand-Supply Gap +0.7% In 4Q 2007 Vs +0.2% In 3Q '07
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--A gauge of the strength of Japan's economic demand suggests deflationary pressures continued to soften in the final quarter of last year.
The data released Monday by the Cabinet Office showed that the country's so-called gross-domestic-product gap stood at plus 0.7% in the final quarter of last year. The positive figure means that underlying demand of an economy is outstripping the economy's overall supply capacity - a state in which inflation theoretically accelerates because of shortages in workers and other resources needed for production of goods and services.
The latest reading is higher than plus 0.2% in the third quarter of 2007. It also marked the fifth straight quarter in which the GDP gap stayed in positive territory.
But analysts stopped short of saying the economy has shaken off general price falls that have hindered its growth for many years.
"Because the risks of future slowdown (in Japanese growth) are increasing, we can't say that deflationary pressures have receded much," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "The consensus is that economic growth will decelerate, at least from its (robust) rise in the October-December quarter. Some even say Japan's economy could contract in the coming quarters. That means that the degree of positive GDP gap could get smaller - or it could even get back into negative territory in 2008."
The surprisingly robust 3.7% annualized expansion in Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter of last year helped hoist the GDP gap in the same quarter. But the GDP growth in that quarter is considered an anomaly, with many analysts forecasting a slowdown ahead.
That's because U.S. demand for Japanese exports is expected to weaken further as housing-market problems sap strength off the U.S. economy, Shinke said. Also at home, high prices of imported oil and other commodities are raising the cost of living for Japanese consumers, chilling their sentiment, he said. Companies are suffering too because weak domestic demand prevents them from passing on high material costs to households.
Japanese policy-makers may remain guarded as well. The government Friday cut its assessment of the economy for the first time since November 2006, saying growth is easing mainly because Japanese factory output is cooling on weaker U.S. demand. Japan's economy minister, Hiroko Ota, also warned it's possible for the economy in the near future to enter a lull - a state of sluggish growth or just no growth at all.
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--A gauge of the strength of Japan's economic demand suggests deflationary pressures continued to soften in the final quarter of last year.
The data released Monday by the Cabinet Office showed that the country's so-called gross-domestic-product gap stood at plus 0.7% in the final quarter of last year. The positive figure means that underlying demand of an economy is outstripping the economy's overall supply capacity - a state in which inflation theoretically accelerates because of shortages in workers and other resources needed for production of goods and services.
The latest reading is higher than plus 0.2% in the third quarter of 2007. It also marked the fifth straight quarter in which the GDP gap stayed in positive territory.
But analysts stopped short of saying the economy has shaken off general price falls that have hindered its growth for many years.
"Because the risks of future slowdown (in Japanese growth) are increasing, we can't say that deflationary pressures have receded much," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "The consensus is that economic growth will decelerate, at least from its (robust) rise in the October-December quarter. Some even say Japan's economy could contract in the coming quarters. That means that the degree of positive GDP gap could get smaller - or it could even get back into negative territory in 2008."
The surprisingly robust 3.7% annualized expansion in Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter of last year helped hoist the GDP gap in the same quarter. But the GDP growth in that quarter is considered an anomaly, with many analysts forecasting a slowdown ahead.
That's because U.S. demand for Japanese exports is expected to weaken further as housing-market problems sap strength off the U.S. economy, Shinke said. Also at home, high prices of imported oil and other commodities are raising the cost of living for Japanese consumers, chilling their sentiment, he said. Companies are suffering too because weak domestic demand prevents them from passing on high material costs to households.
Japanese policy-makers may remain guarded as well. The government Friday cut its assessment of the economy for the first time since November 2006, saying growth is easing mainly because Japanese factory output is cooling on weaker U.S. demand. Japan's economy minister, Hiroko Ota, also warned it's possible for the economy in the near future to enter a lull - a state of sluggish growth or just no growth at all.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar