U.S. Forex Market Commentary

EURO

The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4450 level and was capped around the $1.4515 level. The common currency continues to orbit the $1.4490 level, representing the 50% retracement of the move from $1.4015 to $1.4965. San Francisco Fed President Yellen last night said she is “not confident” the U.S. will avoid a recession. Data released in the U.S. today saw December wholesale inventories up 1.1%, above expectations and the highest level in more than one year. In eurozone news, European Central Bank member Garganas reported “it is not possible” to know how long the credit market problems will persist in the market. ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo said the ECB kept rates steady yesterday on account of the “big risk” of price rises in the medium-term but conceded uncertainty over economic growth is “unusually high.” His remarks echoed similar remarks from ECB President Trichet yesterday. Most traders believe the ECB will lower interest rates later in H1 2008. Data released in the eurozone today saw December industrial output up 0.8% m/m while the EMU-15 leading indicator fell to 99.1. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4575 level.